Classes seem to have started as normal this term. Or as normal as they could considering this was Hogwarts and the last two terms had been a rough ride. The gallows humor of whispers of what professor might be next to be put on trial, or sent to Azkaban seemed to fill the cracks in various conversations. Cracks caused by the normal teenage gaps in not wanting to say anything too personal or the fact they simply didn’t have a plan for OWLs. The pressure of Hogwarts was starting to get to even him in his fifth year.
He needed a distraction.
He found a distraction in the whispers. In his own debate of which professor would crack next. Would they quit? Would they get sent to St. Mungos for insanity or a fake excuse to escape the castle maintaining their reputations as the left? Would they get charged and set to trial? Would they get sent to Azkaban? He changed the whispers into actual statements. He tried to quantify the odds of things happening.
The number of people who he said he wasn’t taking bets on it from surprised him. Enough to wonder if he should make his predictions into one of those pools like he knew in the shady alleys of Knockturn over quidditch matches which had equal odds. He had his notes and predictions which had the backings of both tarot cards and arithmancy in the odds scattered across the wooden table he'd moved to the clock tower from an unused classroom earlier in term with some help from friends. As for the stools that were scattered about the area they'd come from various odd corners of the castle, and he suspected the elves added some too as some of the more rickety ones seem to have been replaced.
Soon would be the trial of the Headmistress. He looked up at Tulip and said “ No way Headmistress Haswell gets sent to Azkaban. Hogwarts is inherently dangerous. “ His words and predictions likely incorrect due to the assumption that she was being charged for letting what happened last term happen. He said “ You think 4/3 odds on that one sounds right? As the cards seem unsure still. Though arithmancy and logic seem to indicate she won't got to Azkaban.“
OOC: Please let Tulip post first before joining…
It was only the start of term and already the professors were piling on the pressure about OWLS, many 5th years were already starting to develop a nervous twitch. Even Tulip was starting to feel the pressure, well nagging she was starting to get bored of the nagging. If she left school with any OWLS it would be a miracle, she just wanted the nagging to stop. It was in one particularly dull and nagging heavy Arithmancy lesson that Tulip had spotted Bear, or rather what he was doing.
She had spent the lesson distracted by the math he was doing, it certainly wasn't the Arithmancy problem. It was something far more interesting, Tulip understood what he was doing and she had been in awe of the complexity of the math and equations. When she did such things for Quidditch or Duelling she guess-ti-mated at best. This was a beautiful art. How Bear was calculating betting odds was phenomenal.
Sadly it wasn't Quidditch odds the he was calculating, she was still sore about another term without Quidditch, but the current hot Gossip topic the forthcoming trials of some of the teaching staff. The first being the head teachers. The rumour mill was insane with new heads of houses at the start of term missing professors, all the ex-arours had gone, and acording to the Daily Prophet the Head was likely going to Azkaban.
She sat perched on a wobbly stool looking over Bear's handy work. He could do the maths and she had run plenty of betting rings around the school in the last five years.
“ No way Headmistress Haswell gets sent to Azkaban. Hogwarts is inherently dangerous. “ “ You think 4/3 odds on that one sounds right? As the cards seem unsure still. Though arithmancy and logic seem to indicate she won't got to Azkaban.“
Tulip looked again at the complex calculations, "I think those odds seem fair, for finding her guilty in some of what happened last term, I agree though, I'm not sure she'll go to Azkaban." she paused, "I would say higher odds around going to Azkaban but low odds on her throwing one of the other staff members under a nightbus. The usual make a confession painting someone else as the most incompetent person in the room, I bet she pins it on one of the other House heads." Tulip said, thinking about the only way she could see the Head Teacher getting out of trouble.
"You know you have a real knack for this, we could make some decent Sickles and Galleons, I know there are plenty of other students who'd be willing to part with some hard earned tuck money to bet against these odds." She suggested, she had lists of students who she knew would want a piece of these odds they were calculating.
He considered Tulip’s words carefully. The impact of a result of a guilty verdict without Azkaban was likely different to both the cards and the numbers. Of course he had no idea how accurate either was as both could be influenced by factors unknown. The equations though would be different for the different results.
He said “ The math and cards would be different between the two. As they’d have different impacts fate wise. “ Or he thought a book he read last term tied the results of actions to fate lines. He’d have to locate that book again in the library as he read it last term due to a different chapter which discussed how time impacted the prediction of events. The closer to an event wasn’t always the best point for the most accurate prediction. Which confused him as he thought closer more would be known so equations would be more accurate. One thing both divination and arithmancy books had in common was contradictions to themselves.
He said “ Odds have to be individually determined for a course of events. Though at this point the first trial is probably more predictable as you’re right the first one up often caves and points at another. I’ve heard whispers that they put whom they think is most likely to fold and give up names first. Or who they’d rather punish the least hoping they feed names which does again reduce the odds of Azkaban. “
To say he heard a number of things spending time in his grandparents shop over the years in Knockturn Alley would be an understatement. Perhaps that was why the odds were so low for Headmistress Haswell as he thought more he agreed it made more sense.
What didn’t make sense was how Tulip thought money could come from this. He whispered quietly “ This is just predictions. How would betting against them work exactly. “ He knew people bet against odds in Knockturn Alley and heard odds all his life. Partly how he learned a bits of the math on to hot afternoons where he was sitting outside and the guy who liked their families bench showed him stuff he didn’t understand. He also knew if someone asked later the man just gave him candy and told him stories of daring and fanciful quidditch matches. Stories that frightened him from playing quidditch or even flying period with the odds of injury calculated about.
He was more than confused but started on the set of equations around guilty without Azkaban which was written on top of the next paper he grabbed from his stack of blanks.
Of course she heard the rumblings. Everyone knew there were trials starting soon. It was bound to happen, Tilly was just surprised at those being charged. The Headmistress, Deputy and Professor Barlowe had saved the day along with the Minister. Why they were on the line she truly didn’t understand.
When news went out, Tilly asked her grandfather about the trials, but he was mute on the point. Being involved in the proceedings made him silent on the matter, which was a shame, he probably had a lot of dirt on the subject.
Once the shock wore off about the trials, the whispers about who would be found guilty, who would be fired and who might end up behind bars in Azkaban, started to take over.
There were rumors that a few students were running a betting ring out of the clocktower. If the rumors were true, Tilly would soon find out. Walking up the stairs, a small wad of cash in her pocket, she heard voices as her footsteps brought her closer. The voices were familiar enough to make her think betting was actually happening. Tulip and Bear, and did she just hear bear mention cards?
As Tilly entered the clock tower and took in the site before her, a table with papers, stools and two of her friends looking at something, she was excited to find out what all they were getting up to.
“Odds have to be individually determined for a course of events. Though at this point the first trial is probably more predictable as you’re right the first one up often caves and points at another. I’ve heard whispers that they put whom they think is most likely to fold and give up names first. Or who they’d rather punish the least hoping they feed names which does again reduce the odds of Azkaban.”
Walking close, they hadn’t noticed her yet. “Did you hear the trials got moved around. Deputy Blackwood is going first now. Does that do anything to your numbers? What are the odds on the Minister? If nothing else I bet he gets canned.”
If you tell a redhead
NOTto do something
She’ll do itTWICE and take pictures....
The math and cards would be different between the two. As they’d have different impacts fate wise.
Tulip folded her arms deep in thought at Bear's thought on the math of how he worked things out. "Could it be a random element, some variable we hadn't thought about, a person, or descion where someone is only at 50:50 about doing it?" she suggested, even with all the divination techniques in the world there was still an element of randomness.
Odds have to be individually determined for a course of events. Though at this point the first trial is probably more predictable as you’re right the first one up often caves and points at another. I’ve heard whispers that they put whom they think is most likely to fold and give up names first. Or who they’d rather punish the least hoping they feed names which does again reduce the odds of Azkaban.
Tulip smiled "This is the bit I'm good at, we have various options you know the most likely outcome, then we think about other scenarios and give them a likelihood of happening. For example during Quidditch season, based on the team lists, the practices, and previous matches you know who's likely to win. But you give an option for them to loose, to draw, or something ridiculous to happen like the keeper being eaten by a Hippogriff. The odds are based loosely on how likely that is to happen or how much money you want to make" she said, she wasn't sure who had taught her to gamble it was probably Flora, it seemed like a Flora thing to do, she was busy being or rather trying to be an actress, she wrote frequently and the stories of speakeasys and gangsters was incredible. It sometimes made it hard to want to wait till she was old enough to leave Hogwarts.
She heard footsteps and she went on alert ready to hide Bear's working, if they were going to get caught she'd claim to be forcing Bear to do homework for her. But Tulip relaxed when she saw who it was, her fellow Gryffindor Tilly, she knew that girl was no nark.
“Did you hear the trials got moved around. Deputy Blackwood is going first now. Does that do anything to your numbers? What are the odds on the Minister? If nothing else I bet he gets canned.”
Tulip looked at Bear, "Bet that's what's being messing up your numbers." she said before looking back over at Tilly "You up for a putting some money up on the outcomes of the trials?"
Naturally arthimancy was one of his favorite subjects. Mostly as it had the least risk of danger in every class. The catch was it was also often impractical. Which was why his parchments filled with numbers and equations also had the impact of the tarot cards to keep him focused.
Though with either there were no guarantees. Hence why everything was just odds.
He said “ Maybe. Though there is always some randomness in predicting the future. “
Still he looked at his parchment and it seemed a bit more than the typical randomness.
He listened as Tulip switched over to discussing quidditch. A sport he had zero interest in actually playing. Yet, had been the first numbers he’d really been exposed to as far as predictions went. Which gave him some odd understanding of it.
He said “ Odds are based more on likelyhood of an event. Though I think adjusted in ones favor for the money part. “ The guy he knew as a kid definitely adjusted the odds to be slightly more in his favor. He’d seen some of the numbers, and he’d seen some of the exchanges that differed based on the person for the same numbers.
Then he looked up and saw Tilly. Blinking at her words he looked towards Tulip and said “ That is definitely big enough to explain why things look off. Especially in the cards as that was likely determined before I even pulled from the deck. “
He grabbed another sheet and looked at considering Deputy Blackwood writing his name on the top. Then started again.
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